Author Topic: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...  (Read 14466 times)

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Offline nena

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #15 on: August 16, 2009, 12:51:34 PM »
Well, there is small, but huge difference between 'provocation' and 'cause' which led to WW1.

Provocation was that assassination in Sarajevo on June 28th 1914, murder of ArchDuke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie.

Whereas, the real causation was something different. It was Austrian -Hungarian wish to make its territories lager, down the Danube barrier.

And, 'Blitzkrieg' (' Short war', supposed war to be, by Austrians), was planned much earlier than in 1914. But, it turned out to be 4 years long one.

Nicholas' wish was the only one, to avoid any kind of bloodshed.
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Offline Yelena Aleksandrovna

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #16 on: August 25, 2009, 12:46:10 PM »
I think that the Russian Revolution would happened anyway, but perhaps time latter, the majority
of the people disliked the government and the condition of their lives before the WWI, but the War
promoted that the Revolution started perhaps before.

Constantinople

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2010, 10:23:55 AM »
Considering the fact that Russia had fought against the Ottomon empire to free slavic nations in the Balkans as late as 1913, so it was highly unlikely that Russia would not defend what it considered its fellow slavs in Serbia.  Having said that, If Russia had tried to avoid the war, the Austrian Hungarians would have kept encroaching on the Balkans and absorbing more and more of the Ottoman empire until they reached the Ottoman empire and would not have stopped there.  Sooner or later they would have reached the edges of the Russian empire.  If that had happened in 1918, Russia would not have had any higher level of preparation but may have had Dreadnoughts at this point.  one difference might have been that Austro Hungary may have eventually have invaded Russia and then suffered a massive defence.  Russia would have had problems financing a war in any case.  In terms of a revolution, perhaps Lenin would have died of consumption or some other similar disease in Switzerland by this tiime the war had begun and without Lenin, I doubt the revolution would have taken place.  Probably Rasputin would not have have been murdered and maybe the autocracy would have moved into a constitutional monarchy more in line with that in Germany and Britain.  It is entirely possible that if a revolution had taken place that if Lenin could have been prevented from leading it , that it would have been less than successful.

Robert_Hall

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2010, 11:04:37 AM »
All hypothetical speculation, Const.
 First, Russia did not start the war, Germany & A-H did.  By treaty entanglements, Russia was obligated to enjoin the conflict, as unprepared as she was. It was not just a matter of  just  protecting Slavic interests.
 As for the revolution- it was a given that it would happen. Timing was perfect.  Lenin was charismatic, but  he was not irreplaceable. If he had not lived,  there were others prepared to take over.  His health concerns were no secret and there was sort of a leadership succession in place. Trotsky  would most likely have taken the lead, and he was more of a firebrand than Lenin.
 The revolution was inevitable, with or without war. The discontent was massive.  Injustice was intolerable and the divsion between classes obscene.

Constantinople

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2010, 11:30:53 AM »
Revolution may have been inevitable or maybe not but its success was not.  Trotsky did not have the skills or the charisma to lead a revolution, as exmplified by how he was edged out by others.  Stalin did not have the brains to front a revolution.  And you are right it is all hypothesis. 
In terms of treaties, Russia had a treaty with France but this would not have been activated by Austro Hungary attacking Serbia.  The problem was that on the 25 of May 1914, the Imperial Council in Russia decided to support Serbia.  Austro Hungary declared war on Serbia and at this point Russia started to mobilize.  Germany then declared war on Russia and it was at this point that the treaties like the Franco Russian Alliance and the Entente Cordiale catalysed Germany's movement into Belgium and towards France.  Once again, without the Russian support of Serbia, Germany would not have had the rationale to attack Belgium and France.  Once again without this, the First World War would not have begun in 1914 and once again this is hypothesis.  Given the tensions in Europe, especially in the Balkans, it is probable that if a conflict had not started in 1914, it would have begun at some point in the future.  If it had been delayed enough, then it is unlikely that Lenin would have been able to enter Russia and without the mass deaths of the first world war and the food shortages, it is highly unlikely that a revolution would have had traction.  Again this is hypothesis.

Robert_Hall

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2010, 11:45:08 AM »
I agree about Stalin. He was an opportunist, and was not ready to lead at that time. I think, according to what I have read about him, he was still learning, despite  his long involvement in revolutionary activities, Usually bank robberies.
  And despite the other factors I mentioned, the Russian government was incompetent Lead by an equally incompetent  Emperor.
 Rasputin was an inegma, he was pretty much universally hated, war or not. The perception that he interferred and influenced governments, true or not, was deeply resented. As was his  undue influence on the IF. I feel his demise was also inveitable.

Sergei Witte

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2010, 12:18:17 PM »
I guess keeping away from speculation is what is the biggest problem in history investigation. Keeping to the facts is difficult.

The facts always have the last thing to say.

Constantinople

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2010, 12:31:44 PM »
Nichholas was completely incompetent but until the war, it wasnt that difficult to control a largely illiterate country (90%).  It was not until the peasants began urbanizing that they caused significant problems.  The Russian economy was in relatively good shape prior to 1914 and with the increasing urbanization of Europe and the mechanization of transport there would have been solid markets for Russian oil and wheat.  Prosperity is not conducive to revolution.  As well, the Ruble was a solid currency and things like education and services to the Russian polity were increasing.  one negative fator was the antisemitism which inhibited Jewish entrepreneurship and involvement in the middle classes and would have impelled them to revolutionary actions.  The reality is that unless there was a cataclysmic and sustained event like the Russo japanese war or the first world war.  

Constantinople

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2010, 12:37:17 PM »
that is unless there had been a sustained cataclysmic event like the Russo Japanese war or the first world war, there wouldnt have been enough pain or depriviation to give a revolution friction.  furthermore Russia's high level of religiosity and the role of the clergy in information gathering would have prevented the overthrow of the monarchy.

Robert_Hall

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #24 on: April 07, 2010, 12:51:33 PM »
I disagree. The first revolution was a success, was it not? That is the one that out in the Provisional government and ultimately the Emperor's abdication. Unfortunately, they were no more compent than  the Imperial governmet That in itself guaranteed  another revolution.
 By luck, cunning, impeccable planing, intimidation  and terror, the Bolsheviks came out on top. The revolution was inevitable, but the winner was not a sure thing, I feel.
 I think you give too much credit to the Church.  By it link and support of Imperial rule, it  was equally discredited,. There was not much love lost between the people and the Church. They were seen as equal oppressors. That perception may have been different out in the country  side, but it reached them  eventually.
 Of course, this is all how I see it.

Robert_Hall

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #25 on: April 07, 2010, 12:57:54 PM »
I do not know how those lines happened, but they are unintentional.

Constantinople

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #26 on: April 07, 2010, 01:08:50 PM »
The revolution was never inevitable and the revolution you speak of was a consequence of the war.  So was the provisional government.  Without the war, everything was hypothetical.

Robert_Hall

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #27 on: April 07, 2010, 01:21:52 PM »
Again, I disagree, There was much discontent before the wars; hunger and abuse of the workers was endemic,  Education and healthcare nonexistent among the lower classes. Child mortality rates were quite high  amongst them as well
   The college cadets were  ripe for revolution, but not sure which direction to take, But the were demanding change. Abuse  of the ranks in the military was  another reason for discontent- witness the slaughter of officers- revenge.
 The Imperial Government ruled by oppression and privilege. After 300 years, change and a violent one, was  a given, IMO.

Constantinople

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #28 on: April 07, 2010, 02:33:27 PM »
 ithought the Cadets were a political party and all of these elements still did not have that much success until the food shortages in 1916 -17.
You are right about the oppressiveness of the government and this was exacerbated by the conspicuous consumption of the Imperial family.  Also about the high mortality rate of infants and the low level that most people survived at but until there is enough impetus, there wouldnt have been an overthrow of the government.

Alixz

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Re: Suppose that Russia Had Not Entered the War ...
« Reply #29 on: April 10, 2010, 03:44:28 AM »
Well, there is small, but huge difference between 'provocation' and 'cause' which led to WW1.

Provocation was that assassination in Sarajevo on June 28th 1914, murder of Arch Duke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie.

Nicholas' wish was the only one, to avoid any kind of bloodshed.

And another difference is between provocation and excuse.  In the long run, Franz Joseph did not truly care about his heir Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie.  But any excuse to go to war over the territory that the Austria wanted was a good excuse.

I'll bet the Franz Ferdinand would have been much surprised to find out that his death was a "provocation".  He knew how Franz Joseph felt about himself and his wife.