The anecdote comes from Figes, pp. 340-41 of A People's Tragedy.
For at least the first three days of what slowly turned into a revolution during a 9-day warming break in an unusually cold St. Petersburg winter, the police and military forces held their ground firmly. All the major intersections and strategic buildings were in their hands. But the tide began to turn on Sunday, February 26. The streets were late to fill that morning as people were sleeping in late. (This speaks volumes as to the real nature of the early stages of this revolution, whose first few days were a mix of people trying to find bakeries selling bread and bourgeois strollers out to enjoy the weather and see what was going on.)
But by noontime, workers were marching in to the city center from the industrial suburbs to stage demonstrations. And, as happened on another winter Sunday twelve years earlier, the tsarist authorities fired on the unarmed crowd, killing dozens. With that, the die of revolution was cast.
On that same day the socialists were meeting in Kerensky's apartment where Alexander Shliapnikov, the Bolshevik leader in St. Petersburg, told the gathering there would be no revolution and that the left-wing parties had to prepare for a sustained period of government reaction.
Once it became clear that a full-blown revolution was underway, the leftist parties in the Duma -- including the Mensheviks and the Bolsheviks -- became alarmed at how quickly events were moving ahead of them and actually began moving to the right -- and also frantically avoided trying to become responsible for taking over government of the country.
So . . . was this revolution inevitable?
On the evening of February 25, Nicholas' Council of Ministers had met and concluded that it was critical to hold back from an open confrontation with the crowds which, though growing daily, were still peaceable and unarmed. They knew that the situation was tense but still felt it was containable as long as no fuel was poured on the situation. And the socialist leaders agreed with them. Shliapnikov was of the opinion that "give the workers a pound of bread and the movement will peter out." Nikolai Sikhanov, another prominent socialist, concurred in the assessment.
But then came a telegram from Nicholas, who had departed Tsarskoye Selo for Mogilev on February 22. To the dismay of his ministers he ordered the chief of the Petrograd military district to use force to put down the situation "by tomorrow".
Why did Nicholas order the very action his Council of Ministers most feared? Well, it came as the culmination of a series of bad decisions Nicholas had made. He had ignored his ministers' advice (and that of most of the Romanovs) in 1915 and absented himself for long periods from his capital in favor of his military headquarters, with encouragement of his obtuse and perhaps unstable wife and her starets Rasputin. And that February he was getting his information on the situation in the capital from A. D. Protopopov, his Minister of the Interior and one of the least competent of the ludicrously incompetent series of appointments foisted on him by Alexandra and Rasputin. (Protopopov, a mystic in the hysterical vein of Alexandra, once told Kerensky that he ruled "with the help of Jesus Christ".) Protopopov had no intention of letting Nicholas know the true situation and how wrong he had been in the assessment he had given the tsar just a few days earlier. And, lastly, Nicholas was almost pathologically blind to any advice, no matter how reasoned and well-informed, that went against his inclinations. Nicholas was quiet and polite, but he was not intellectually subtle. The situation in Petrograd that Sunday was not beyond government control, but it required subtlety and an ability to thread the needle. Nicholas had neither.
Grand Duke Michael was certainly not the brightest bulb in the Romanov box, which was not a very high wattage selection for starters. But Michael did not dump a revolution into his brother's lap. Nicholas reached out and grabbed it.