Let's see here . . .
Nicholas II was reared by a father who knew how to run his empire and to change the tide of events, even if we might not today like the direction he took. He was reared by a mother who ruled St. Petersburg society and understood the propaganda power of her role and how to leverage that power for the benefit of the monarchy.
We all know the outcome of Nicholas' reign.
Alexis was being reared by a weak-willed father who mishandled a revolution in 1905/06, who took Russia into two wars for which it was ill-prepared, and who managed to create the widespread impression, whether accurate or not, that his wife was the real power on the throne.
He was reared by a mother of questionable emotional stability, who retreated from her public role into a mysticism that even the larger imperial family thought bizarre, and who, at least in the latter stages, meddled disastrously in politics.
From this starting point, on what conceivable basis can anyone conclude he was going to be a good tsar?
Because he was adorable? Because he was crippled with recurrent illness? Because you could just hug, hug, hug him? Is that really all it would have taken to have ruled the mess of a Russia he would have inherited?
Sorry I interrupted the pajama party . . . .