I find amazing that so many people simply think that the transition to some kind of constitutional government could be easily done in Russia, had it not being for the "weak-willed" Nicholas II, the "silly" Alexandra and Rasputin, the "representative of the power of darkness". These same people would probably express doubt about the possibility of planting palm trees along the avenues of Sant Petersburg...
"It was stupid of the tsar not to do away with autocracy and become a constitutional monarch" is a view that ignores completely the situation in the Russian countryside, the little support for liberal politicians (and their dubious behaviour), the widespread terrorism, the revolutionary networks...
Yeah, but keeping the Autocracy didn't exactly help them either.
Looks like Nicky and Alix were screwed no matter what they did.
Autocracy (or rather, autocratic measures) MIGHT have saved the Russian monarchy. What caused the overthrow of the monarchy was the war. And what caused the (European) war was Russia's general mobilization. The tsar might have decided to resist any pressure and not to get involved in the Balkans whatever happened. The final decision depended on him and he blocked the order for general mobilization ONCE. At the second attempt he gave in.
After the murder in Sarajevo, in order for Russia not to be dragged into the war, Nicholas II should have had to apply a lot of autocratic measures:
1. Fire a lot of people: Foreign Minister Sazonov, Minister of Agriculture Krivoshein (one of the main hawks), Minister of War Sukhomlinov, chief of General Staff Yanuskevich, ambassador in Paris Izvolsky... and many senior officers in the army and the State administration. A real purge, but not like Stalin's: with a dismissal letter thanking them for their services to the motherland, a generous pension and maybe one medal or two.
2. Have a family talk with the Grand Dukes (specially with Grand Duke Nicholas, married to a Montenegrin princess).
3. Dissolve the Duma and rule by decree, as a temporary measure.
4. Impose strict censure.
5. Through the procurator of the Holy Synod let the bishops know that preaching about the suffering of "our orthodox brothers, the Serbs" was completely
verboten.
6. Find a reliable statesman that could help him along the process. The most difficult part: Stolypin had been murdered, Witte and Nicholas disliked each other but maybe they could patch up their quarrel.
7. Sign a whole batch of laws to improve the lot of workers (for example: resurrect Zubatov's state-sponsored trade unions and make negotiation with a government-appointed mediator compulsory to solve conflicts between labour and factory owners). Lowering some taxes would also help.
Certainly not easy, but not impossible and it was precisely autocracy what allowed it.
If Russia had not mobilized, there would have been a short war between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Serbia (with Bulgaria and Albania joining on the side of Austria towards the end, to get some spoils) instead a horrible world war, followed by a horrible Revolution, followed by a horrible Civil War, followed by a horrible Communist regime, followed by the rising of the horrible Nazi regime, followed by yet another horrible world war, the Holocaust, Hiroshima, the Communist occupation of half of Europe...