You're right, but, between 5,000,000-10,000,000 dead in World War indicate that the Russian Military while getting better in leadership and weaponry, was not in Germany's class. I don't even think the English were either, except for their Navy. It was the overwhelming number of American Soldiers and the violation of Von Schlieffen Plan, which assured Germany's defeat. Remember that it was Lenin pushing for Brest-Litovsk in the face of Trotsky opposition that got Russia out of the War. At an incredible price, but considering the carnage, the millions of dead, was well worth it in the eyes of starving mothers and chldren of Petrograd, Kiev and Moscow.
If the goal was to win, then the strategy of Nicholas II and Kerensky was a failure and the Russian War Dead prove that. Lenin's victory proves that. It tipped the balance to his favor.
I remember that Lincoln was the subject of immense criticism everytime Robert E. Lee invaded the North. At Antietam and later Gettysburg, calls resounded through the North to bring the Army of the Potomac and Ohio home to defend the Union. It was Grant, after victories at Shiloh and Vicksburg who convinced Lincoln that defending the homeland wasn't the answer. Grant said at one point every Union General worries about what Lee is going to do. I intend for Lee to worry about what I'm goiing to do.
It was developing a coherent strategy that mattered. Lincoln didn't think he was going to win re-election in 1864. Grant and Sherman proved Lincoln Right.
Alexander I's strategy of drawing the French into Russia and denying the sustenance helped defeat Napoleon. It was a brilliant strategy. And the right one too.
In reading Hindenburg, Ludendorff and Colonel Hoffman's reports, you get a sense that they anticipated every move the Russians made before they made it. Just read Hindenburg's report about the Tannenburg Forest. Hindenburg described as a perfect German Victory. Von Rennenkampf assured that result just as Hoffman had predicted.
Defending Russian soil is a great jingle, but starving Prussian/German soldiers outside Moscow and Petrograd could have brought German collapse well before the American entry into the war.
I think Alexander III would have done what I suggested. Just a hunch I have. But who knows.