Realistically, was escape possible?

[Bach]

My H (who is a military strategist) and I often muse about what it would take to have aided and abetted an escape from the Ipatiev House.

Other than wild fantasy (Time travel with a BlackHawk helicoper!) what do you think it would have "taken" to rescue the entire family?

Planning it would be a nightmare, and given that the family "telegraphed" their expectations so openly whenever hope arose.  Thus, it would have to be planned without their knowledge.

Provision would need to be made to carry Alix and Alexei due to their infirmities.

What does everyone think?  A simple overwhelming force, or diversionary tactics and a limited strike force at the house?

With all the brainpower and knowledge here, we could come up with a plan.  

[leushino]

It's really quite simple. Realistically, escape was impossible. And history has proven this out.

[AGRBear]

The Germans ploted an escape to occur around the 16th of July 1918.  

Why the 16th?

Evidently,  this was pay day and some of the guards would have drank away part of their pay and ended up what they preferred to as being "dead drunk".   I assume this meant that they would not be funtioning very well as guards.

AGRBear

[Bach]

OK, there's a start.  The 16th of any given month is payday.

I disagree that escape was impossible - escapes go on today from far more secure prisons.  (And I mean literally today, as the news from Yemen bears out.)

How many guards are we looking at?  The family are in two rooms, so they can be easily located.  What about servants?  So few, and the moral obligation is there to rescue them as well.

[Robert_Hall]

I agree with Leushino. Escape would have been impossible logistacly [sp.?].  Too many people involved.  One-at-a-time is theoretically possible, but as soon as one was missing, the rest would be doomed instantly. The family refused to be seperated and they would never have abandoned the servants.
Rescue and escape are different scenarios. Rescue while still captive in Ipatiev house would have been another possibility, IF the White army [or anyone else] arrived in time. But, that also would have most likely involved casualties. Especially if  such "rescuers" arrived while the guards were on a payday drunk !

[RomanovFan318]

It's really quite simple. Realistically, escape was impossible. And history has proven this out.

Agreed. I used to think that maybe if one or two of the guards had been secret sympathisers that  they could have helped the family esacpe but after having read up on what the situation was really like I don't think so. There were too many people to have to get out of the house and the place was to well guarded. Anyone caught trying to help the Romanovs escape would have been shot on the spot.  I just don't see how one or two (or even several guards) could  have gotten all 7 members  of the family and their servants out without being caught in the act by someone else.

As for outside rescue I don't think so either.  Possible maybe if an armed group of monarchists had stormed the house but highly unlikely that such a mission would have succeed in freeing the Romanovs.

[Tsarfan]

Evidently,  this was pay day and most of the guards would have drank away part of their pay and ended up what they preferred to as being "dead drunk".   I assume this meant that they would not be funtioning very well as guards.

What is the reliable evidence that the guard force fell apart every payday?  Are you saying that the guards on duty (as opposed to those off duty) were allowed to be at their posts "dead drunk"?

Or is this another one of those "since-it-could-have-happened-it-must-have-happened" scenarios?

[Robert_Hall]

Bingo !, Tsarfan.  Some people barely give the guards credit for being human beings, least of all civilised ones. One trys to keep in mind that the guards were a different lot than the executioners. And considering the discipline  enforced in the house, it is unlikely any of them would have been on a biinge, payday or not.
In any case, another scenario  could have been kidnap. This by any number of factions, including the various soviets.  I would imagine that would involve  seperation  of the family as well. Obviously Nicholas or Alexei would be  prime targets, but Alexandra & the girls  could be useful barter as well.
Ultimately, all these roads lead to the same end, though, do they not ?

[Elisabeth]

The evidence that some of the guards got drunk on payday comes from testimony taken by the Sokolov investigation to the effect that two of the guards got drunk that July 16 and had to be disciplined. I think they were thrown into a shed to sober up. (I think these two might have been some of the witnesses who heard shots coming from the Ipatiev House that night.)

The sixteenth of every month was NOT payday. Payday must have fallen on Tuesdays, how often a month I don't know. But July 16, 1918 was a Tuesday.

The family was not kept in two rooms. They actually had three bedrooms, a dining room, living room and sitting room, and a kitchen. During the daytime they would have been spread out through most of these rooms. Alexandra was the only member of the family who would have been in a predictable place during the daytime - her bedroom. She rarely went out for walks or even joined the rest of the family at mealtimes.

I think once Yurovsky took over command of the Ipatiev House in early July an escape attempt was an impossibility. The family had a slightly better chance when Avdeev was in charge because he had a drinking problem and appears to have been more careless where disciplining his men was concerned. But even then escape would have been highly unlikely. Even if the rescuers could have got the family and servants out of the house in one piece they still would have had to make their way through an entire city that was intensely hostile to the Romanov family. I don't think they could have gotten far.  

[Tsarfan]

The evidence that some of the guards got drunk on payday comes from testimony taken by the Sokolov investigation to the effect that two of the guards got drunk that July 16 and had to be disciplined. I think they were thrown into a shed to sober up.

This is evidence that discipline was enforced and drunk guards were not allowed to remain at their posts, not evidence that the guard force became ineffectual on payday.

[Bach]

Well, they lead to the same road in that...bluntly speaking....even if there were not a massacre, none of these people would be alive today even IF there were a "break-out."

So.  A mass escape or rescue is not feasible.  A partial one MIGHT be feasible, but would have to be a "snatch" or "grab" of certain members of the family, without their prior knowledge or consent.  (Otherwise, they would refuse to go.)

Obvious choices of *who* to take and who to leave don't seem to come easily.  Clearly, if you're attempting a rescue, it's for the purpose of setting up a rival government and rallying point.  That means the Tsarevitch.  But who among the siblings is then left behind, and who goes with?

Leave Mom and Dad behind?

Which of the girls goes with?  And since under the then-effective Laws of Succession, none could inherit, is there a dynastic reason to include any of them?  A humanitarian reason, to be sure.

Perhaps the Tsar, the Tsarevitch, and two of the daughters...the idea being that with the Tsar coming along, he could name a new heir should his son fail.  Although he had abdicated as Tsar, it might be reasonably assumed that he retained the right or power to name an heir.

[Elisabeth]

This is evidence that discipline was enforced and drunk guards were not allowed to remain at their posts, not evidence that the guard force became ineffectual on payday.

I agree. I get the impression from Yurovsky's reminiscences that he was a strict disciplinarian. This is partly why I think neither an escape attempt nor a rescue effort would have worked once he was commandant of the House of Special Purpose.

Plus, as I said before, this was Ekaterinburg - deeply hostile to the Romanovs. Even if by some miracle you got a few family members out of the house, how could you get them out of the city without being recognized? Nicholas and Alexei were both easily recognizable and they were also the only two "worth" saving from a purely dynastic point of view.  

[Bach]

Well, I'm looking at a map of Ekaterinburg, and there appear to be a couple of bodies of water nearby - a canal/river leading into a lake.  That seems to be a passageway.

BTW, Ekaterinburg has a phenomenal Web site with a virtual tour of the Cathedral on the Blood.

[Tania]

Dear Bach,

Would you kindly express a bit further on the canal/river and lake area ?

Would you as well offer further information on the Cathedral on the Blood ? Thanking you for any and all information.

Tatiana+

Well, I'm looking at a map of Ekaterinburg, and there appear to be a couple of bodies of water nearby - a canal/river leading into a lake.  That seems to be a passageway.

BTW, Ekaterinburg has a phenomenal Web site with a virtual tour of the Cathedral on the Blood.

[Bach]

Tania, the best way I can do this, is to send you the link:

http://www.ekaterinburg.tv/map1.htm

That's the main site; follow the links in there for Cathedral on the Blood.

The map can be enlarged, if you wish.

Best,